Pondering rookies part III - potential

At this point of his career, is Tommy Hanson comparable to someone like Roy Halladay? Experts have made the comparisons and it remains to be seen if Hanson can fulfill some of the potential he has shown so far.

Potential -

Considering a rookie's potential ceiling and whether he has the foundation of skills to develop into a better player past his rookie campaign is important - to predict future success.

Has a particular player gotten by because other he hasn't been exposed a second time - and in his rookie season, has already peaked?

Detroit Tigers rookie pitcher Rick Porcello doesn't have the punch-out stuff of a Tim Lincecum but Porcello was all of 20 years of age when he pitched in the Major Leagues, so there is potential for him to be better at 25, than at 20.

For starting pitchers, looking at their stuff is one key to predicting success - starting pitchers who enjoy success in the minors [maybe a pitcher who posts nice won-loss records] but don't throw hard at all don't have as much potential as pitchers who throw hard [or basically have pure 'stuff'].

Toronto Blue Jays rookie Ricky Romero has a solid rookie campaign, though it took a while for the first round pick to get to the Major Leagues.

On the other hand, guys who throw hard need command - otherwise they don't get anywhere.

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus' ability to make adjustments will dictate his potential ability to star in the Major Leagues.

For position players, the rookies who don't make contact and strike out a lot are not likely to have long-term success - however if a player is young enough and smart enough, the better ones make the adjustments.

The position players who are rookies should be good athletes - though to improve, it takes skill and not just pure physical ability.

I think this is where all the coaching and guidance a player has received may pay off - if a particular rookie has been told for his life just 'to play,' he might be at a disadvantage over another player who has received instruction as well as played organized baseball for much of his life.

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen provided a nice mix of athleticism and ability in his rookie season, giving Pirates fans a reason for optimism.

Pondering rookies part II - roles

Is San Diego Padres rookie pitcher Mat Latos the next Jake Peavy?

Will Toronto Blue Jays rookie Marc Rzepczynski enjoy long-term success in the Major Leagues?

Roles -

Rookies starting pitchers who slotted to be a No. 1 or No. 2 guy always have more potential - as opposed to pitchers who fill out the back end of the rotation.

Will Daniel Schlereth fall into relative obscurity if he doesn't become a closer?

Relief pitchers are not collectible unless at the very least, they have potential to close - if a minor league pitcher doesn't have any starts or saves to his name, then he isn't likely going to be a star [regardless of a player's real-life potential to be useful if he reaches the Major Leagues].

After being a shortstop in college and a third baseman in his rookie season in 2009, Chicago White Sox rookie Gordon Beckham probably has the potential to be a similar player to Dustin Pedroia at second base.

For position players, consider how a team sees a rookie - was an up-and-coming player a highly touted prospect who was a first-round pick or merely a minor leaguer having a good season in the minor leagues getting a courtesy Major League promotion as a reward.

A rookie who will probably have long-term success is probably a player who can plugged into playing one position for the next five to 10 years - rather than a rookie who is already seen as a utility player or a guy who may not be able find an ideal spot on the field to play and if playing in the American League, maybe slotted to be a full-time designated hitter.

For position players, rookies who can play up the middle may have the most potential - maybe a shortstop, since the position is probably the most athletic on the field.

Pondering rookies part I - considering ages

Garrett Jones provided some sock as a rookie with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2009, but he was also 28 years old.

Collecting baseball cards, I'm trying to apply definitions as far as being able to tell whether or not particular rookie players are going to be good or not - I've heard of top prospects, but what about the other players coming up through the minor leagues to get some extended playing time in the Major Leagues?

Three basic things I look for and will try to outline as far as being able to eyeball rookies who will have the best long-term success - include age, role and potential.

Age -

If a player is still in the the minor leagues entering the age of 25 or older, it probably means he isn't a top prospect - if a player is a MLB rookie at 25 or older, it means there maybe more injury concerns, thus limiting potential. There are always going to be exceptions to the rule, but MLB players who debut at 25 or older probably will not have the long term success at the Major Leagues.

If a player is still in the minor leagues entering the age of age 24, it probably means it is close to make or break as far reaching the Major Leagues - if a player is a MLB rookie at 24, it means it probably means it took some time to eliminate holes in his game and a team may have a solid player, but the potential for being a star shrinks.

If a player is still in the minor leagues entering the age of 23, the player still has some time to put together a season warranting an eventual call-up, especially if he is in AAA or AA - if a player is a MLB rookie at 23, it seems like ideal age for a player who has put his time in the system, to come up and still develop into a star.

If a player is still in the minor leagues entering the age of 22, the player still has some time to put together a season warranting an eventual call-up, especially if he is in AAA or AA already - if a player is a MLB rookie at 22, it seems like ideal age for a player who is going to be pretty good and is at least destined to make one all-star game.

If a player is still in the minor leagues entering the age of 21 or younger, the player is basically unproven and maybe reports from experts at Baseball America is what to go on - now if a player is already a MLB rookie at 21 or younger, it seems like ideal age for a player who is going to be pretty good as a potential all-star type talent, probably even better.